Herman Kahn Quotes & Sayings

“World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.”

“Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs.”

“Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.”

“Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought.”

“From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth's ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process.”

“Deterrence itself is not a preeminent value; the primary values are safety and morality.”

“Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity.”

“For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions - both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur.”

“The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.”

“In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it.”